Objective  To analyze the influence of drug factors on falls in the elderly patients with chronic diseases in the communities of Wuhan Qingshan district, and to construct a prediction model.

Methods  The elderly with chronic diseases in four communities of Wuhan Qingshan district were selected as the subjects by cluster random sampling method, the information on patients' age, gender, medication, and occurrence of falls of the patients were collected, and the fall-related drug risk factors were analyzed by multivariate Logistic regression model, the fall risk line chart prediction model was established, and the effectiveness of the model was verified by Bootstrap method.

Results  Among the 608 elderly patients with chronic diseases, 152 (25%) experienced falls after administration. The results of multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that females (OR=1.835, 95%CI 1.228 to 2.742, P=0.003), using hypoglycemic drugs (OR=2.721, 95%CI 1.727 to 4.286, P<0.001), using sedative-hypnotic drugs (OR=1.948, 95%CI 1.220 to 3.111, P=0.005), using antihypertensive drugs (OR=1.779, 95%CI 1.119 to 2.829, P=0.015), taking two or more drugs (OR=2.251, 95%CI 1.309 to 3.869, P=0.003), and poor medication compliance (OR=3.048, 95%CI 1.926 to 4.824, P<0.001) were risk factors for falls after medication. Based on the above influencing factors, a nomogram model was established to predict falls in elderly patients; the verification results showed that the classification calibration curves fit closely, and the area under the ROC curve was 0.720 0 (95%CI 0.669 5 to 0.770 6, P<0.05).

Conclusion  The incidence of falls among the elderly with chronic diseases in the community is high in Qingshan district of Wuhan, and community medical staff and their families should pay attention to them. The prediction model has good predictive value, which is benefit to adopt targeted intervention measures to prevent and reduce the occurrence of falls in elderly patients with chronic diseases in the community.

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