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Machine learning for predicting adverse drug events in polypharmacy: a review of methods and case studies

Published on Feb. 25, 2026Total Views: 16 times Total Downloads: 2 times Download Mobile

Author: LONG Yujun 1, 2, 3# LIU Jianzhao 1, 3, 4# YANG Zhirong 1, 3, 5

Affiliation: 1. Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong Province, China 2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China 3. Department of Computational Biology and Medical Big Data, Faculty of Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence, Shenzhen University of Advanced Technology, Shenzhen 518107, Guangdong Province, China 4. Department of Biomedical Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong Province, China 5. Center for AI in Medicine, Artificial Intelligence Research Institute, Shenzhen University of Advanced Technology, Shenzhen 518107, Guangdong Province, China

Keywords: Polypharmacy Adverse drug events Machine learning Graph convolutional neural network Prediction model

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Abstract

Polypharmacy is prevalent among older adults, often leading to adverse drug events (ADEs). In the context of polypharmacy, certain ADEs have a low incidence during the use of a single drug, but are triggered only by specific drug combinations, thereby manifesting as rare events.  While traditional statistical models suffer from limited assumptions and data processing capacity, machine learning significantly improves prediction efficacy, particularly for drug-drug interactions. This review aims to summarize recent advances in applying machine learning to predict ADEs associated with polypharmacy, focusing on case studies at both the molecular and population levels. At the molecular level, graph convolutional networks (Decagon) predict drug side effects via multimodal biological networks, while tensor factorization (SimplE) substantially reduces training time. The dual-view substructure learning network for drug-drug interaction prediction further enhances DDI prediction by integrating atomic substructures and interaction relationships. Population-level studies using electronic health records employ random forests algorithms and graph neural networks for ADE prediction across drug classes. However, this field still faces many challenges, such as insufficient model interpretability, strict requirements for data quality, and barriers to cross-institutional data sharing. In the future, causal inference and machine learning technology can be integrated to achieve accurate evaluation of the safety of personalized treatment, thereby effectively reducing the risk of ADE associated with polypharmacy.

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References

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